2028年全国民调

纽森与万斯假设对决的已公布平均值及原始调查。早期民调不代表正式提名，也不预测结果。

2028年全国对决

平均值

43.6%

Gavin Newsom

40.2%

JD Vance

ElectionsUSA ↗ · 假设对决 · 7项加权民调 · 2026年11月5日

选举地图 · 2024年结果

D226

R312

总计538

获胜需270票

National Archives ↗ · 历史结果，并非2028年预测

关键州 · 选举人票

PAPennsylvania19 MIMichigan15 WIWisconsin10 AZArizona11 GAGeorgia16

National Archives ↗ · 2024及2028年分配

支持率与初选

支持37.5%反对59.8%民主党初选：Kamala Harris24.1%共和党初选：JD Vance39.8%

ElectionsUSA · 2026年11月5日

市场对 2028 年的定价

民主党共和党

67.5%31.5%

Jon Ossoff20%Kalshi 24%
JD Vance19%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%Kalshi 10%
Marco Rubio9%Kalshi 11%
Gavin Newsom7%Kalshi 8%
Ron DeSantis5%Kalshi 6%
Kamala Harris3%Kalshi 4%
Josh Shapiro3%Kalshi 3%
Pete Buttigieg2%Kalshi 3%
James Talarico2%Kalshi 3%

Polymarket 价格，并在可用时附 Kalshi。这是交易者价格，不是预测，也不是投注建议。我们不链接这些市场。

两人对决民调

Gavin NewsomJD Vance

43.6%40.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-CortezJD Vance

42.1%41.6%

Pete ButtigiegJD Vance

41.1%38.3%

ElectionsUSA 民调平均值，截至 2026年11月5日。

美国人在查谁

Jon Ossoff1,231,483
Gavin Newsom510,462
JD Vance458,071
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez324,495
Marco Rubio268,769
Donald Trump Jr.265,044
Ron DeSantis262,878
Kamala Harris197,051
Pete Buttigieg186,853
Josh Shapiro118,381

过去 30 天英文维基百科浏览量。代表关注度，不代表支持度。

民主党初选民调

Kamala Harris24.1%
Gavin Newsom14.6%
Pete Buttigieg11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9.5%
Josh Shapiro4.9%
Cory Booker2.6%
Andy Beshear2.5%

共和党初选民调

JD Vance39.8%
Marco Rubio19.7%
Donald Trump Jr.11.7%
Ron DeSantis8.2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.4.1%
Nikki Haley3.2%

特朗普支持率

支持37.5%
反对59.8%

ElectionsUSA 民调平均值，截至 2026年11月5日。

Newsom vs. Vance: hypothetical 2028 matchup

ElectionsUSA’s weighted national polling average, as of Nov 5, 2026. 7 polls carry weight out of 20 on record. This is a hypothetical matchup, not a confirmed ballot, election result, or win probability.

Gavin Newsom · D43.6%

JD Vance · R40.2%

Blue: Newsom · Red dashed: VanceFeb 13, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026

ElectionsUSA tracker ↗Methodology ↗Average: CC BY 4.0 ↗

Polling feed: 获取于2026年11月5日 21:40 UTC

Underlying published polls

Each row links to the source cited by the provider. A = adults, RV = registered voters, LV = likely voters. End dates and sample populations differ; shares are not normalized to two parties.

Latest records supplied by ElectionsUSA for Newsom vs. Vance
Pollster / source	Fieldwork ended	Sample	Newsom	Vance
The Bulwark ↗Pablo Torre Finds Out/YouGov	Oct 14, 2026	1,417 A	41%	36%
UMass Lowell ↗YouGov	Oct 4, 2026	1,000 LV	46%	42%
Emerson College ↗	Aug 17, 2026	1,000 LV	49%	44%
Zogby Analytics ↗	Jul 4, 2026	1,003 LV	38%	45%
The Tarrance Group ↗	Jun 24, 2026	550 LV	43%	47%
Overton Insights ↗	May 20, 2026	1,377	44%	39%
UMass Lowell ↗	Mar 30, 2026	1,000 RV	33%	36%
Zogby Analytics ↗	Jan 7, 2026	891 LV	41%	44.6%
The Argument ↗Verasight	Nov 17, 2025	1,508 RV	53.6%	46.4%
Morning Consult ↗	Nov 16, 2025	2,201 RV	41%	42%
Overton Insights ↗	Oct 29, 2025	1,200 RV	46%	43%
YouGov ↗	Oct 20, 2025	1,000 A	36%	32%

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