2028 national polling

Published averages and original surveys for a hypothetical Newsom–Vance matchup. Early polls do not establish nominees or predict the result.

2028 national matchup

Average

43.6%

Gavin Newsom

40.2%

JD Vance

ElectionsUSA ↗ · Hypothetical matchup · 7 weighted polls · Nov 5, 2026

Electoral map · 2024 result

D226

R312

Total538

270 to win

National Archives ↗ · Historical result, not a 2028 forecast

Key states · Electoral votes

PAPennsylvania19 MIMichigan15 WIWisconsin10 AZArizona11 GAGeorgia16

National Archives ↗ · 2024 & 2028 allocation

Approval and primaries

Approve37.5%Disapprove59.8%Democratic primary: Kamala Harris24.1%Republican primary: JD Vance39.8%

ElectionsUSA · Nov 5, 2026

What markets are pricing for 2028

DemocratsRepublicans

67.5%31.5%

Jon Ossoff20%Kalshi 24%
JD Vance19%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%Kalshi 10%
Marco Rubio9%Kalshi 11%
Gavin Newsom7%Kalshi 8%
Ron DeSantis5%Kalshi 6%
Kamala Harris3%Kalshi 4%
Josh Shapiro3%Kalshi 3%
Pete Buttigieg2%Kalshi 3%
James Talarico2%Kalshi 3%

Polymarket prices, with Kalshi where available. These are trader prices, not a forecast and not a betting tip. We do not link to either market.

Head-to-head polls

Gavin NewsomJD Vance

43.6%40.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-CortezJD Vance

42.1%41.6%

Pete ButtigiegJD Vance

41.1%38.3%

ElectionsUSA polling average, as of Nov 5, 2026.

Who Americans are looking up

Jon Ossoff1,231,483
Gavin Newsom510,462
JD Vance458,071
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez324,495
Marco Rubio268,769
Donald Trump Jr.265,044
Ron DeSantis262,878
Kamala Harris197,051
Pete Buttigieg186,853
Josh Shapiro118,381

English Wikipedia page views in the past 30 days. Attention, not approval.

Democratic primary polls

Kamala Harris24.1%
Gavin Newsom14.6%
Pete Buttigieg11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9.5%
Josh Shapiro4.9%
Cory Booker2.6%
Andy Beshear2.5%

Republican primary polls

JD Vance39.8%
Marco Rubio19.7%
Donald Trump Jr.11.7%
Ron DeSantis8.2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.4.1%
Nikki Haley3.2%

Trump approval

Approve37.5%
Disapprove59.8%

ElectionsUSA polling average, as of Nov 5, 2026.

Newsom vs. Vance: hypothetical 2028 matchup

ElectionsUSA’s weighted national polling average, as of Nov 5, 2026. 7 polls carry weight out of 20 on record. This is a hypothetical matchup, not a confirmed ballot, election result, or win probability.

Gavin Newsom · D43.6%

JD Vance · R40.2%

Blue: Newsom · Red dashed: VanceFeb 13, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026

ElectionsUSA tracker ↗Methodology ↗Average: CC BY 4.0 ↗

Polling feed: Fetched Nov 5, 2026, 9:40 PM UTC

Underlying published polls

Each row links to the source cited by the provider. A = adults, RV = registered voters, LV = likely voters. End dates and sample populations differ; shares are not normalized to two parties.

Latest records supplied by ElectionsUSA for Newsom vs. Vance
Pollster / source	Fieldwork ended	Sample	Newsom	Vance
The Bulwark ↗Pablo Torre Finds Out/YouGov	Oct 14, 2026	1,417 A	41%	36%
UMass Lowell ↗YouGov	Oct 4, 2026	1,000 LV	46%	42%
Emerson College ↗	Aug 17, 2026	1,000 LV	49%	44%
Zogby Analytics ↗	Jul 4, 2026	1,003 LV	38%	45%
The Tarrance Group ↗	Jun 24, 2026	550 LV	43%	47%
Overton Insights ↗	May 20, 2026	1,377	44%	39%
UMass Lowell ↗	Mar 30, 2026	1,000 RV	33%	36%
Zogby Analytics ↗	Jan 7, 2026	891 LV	41%	44.6%
The Argument ↗Verasight	Nov 17, 2025	1,508 RV	53.6%	46.4%
Morning Consult ↗	Nov 16, 2025	2,201 RV	41%	42%
Overton Insights ↗	Oct 29, 2025	1,200 RV	46%	43%
YouGov ↗	Oct 20, 2025	1,000 A	36%	32%

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