The numbers
The midterm curse: the president’s party gained House seats just 3 times in 92 years
1934, 1998, 2002. Every other midterm since 1934 cost the party in the White House seats, and 2026 is on course to do it again.
- Democratic president
- Republican president
- Provisional: count continues
Why it matters
In the 24 midterms counted here the president’s party gained House seats 3 times. When it lost, it lost 32 seats on average. The 2026 net of −34 is provisional, yet it fits the pattern.
How we counted
Net seat change for the president’s party in each midterm since 1934, from the American Presidency Project. The 2026 column uses news-organization race calls and is marked provisional until every seat is called. Bars start at zero.
| Year | President | House | Senate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 * | Trump (R) | −34 | −7 |
| 2022 | Biden (D) | −9 | +1 |
| 2018 | Trump (R) | −41 | +2 |
| 2014 | Obama (D) | −13 | −9 |
| 2010 | Obama (D) | −63 | −6 |
| 2006 | G.W. Bush (R) | −30 | −6 |
| 2002 | G.W. Bush (R) | +8 | +2 |
| 1998 | Clinton (D) | +4 | 0 |
| 1994 | Clinton (D) | −54 | −8 |
| 1990 | G.H.W. Bush (R) | −8 | −1 |
| 1986 | Reagan (R) | −5 | −8 |
| 1982 | Reagan (R) | −26 | +1 |
| 1978 | Carter (D) | −15 | −3 |
| 1974 | Ford (R) | −48 | −5 |
| 1970 | Nixon (R) | −12 | +2 |
| 1966 | L. Johnson (D) | −47 | −4 |
| 1962 | Kennedy (D) | −4 | +3 |
| 1958 | Eisenhower (R) | −48 | −13 |
| 1954 | Eisenhower (R) | −18 | −1 |
| 1950 | Truman (D) | −28 | −6 |
| 1946 | Truman (D) | −56 | −12 |
| 1942 | F. Roosevelt (D) | −45 | −9 |
| 1938 | F. Roosevelt (D) | −72 | −7 |
| 1934 | F. Roosevelt (D) | +9 | +9 |
* Provisional: count continues