32 guides found

ChartsThe midterm curse: the president’s party gained House seats just 3 times in 92 yearsChartsDemocrats flipped 7 Senate seats. 6 were in states Trump won.Charts229,766 votes in three states decided the 2024 electionCharts312 electoral votes looked like a landslide. The popular vote gap was 1.5 points.ChartsA Wyoming vote carries 3.3× the Electoral College weight of a California voteCharts51 of 51: every state and D.C. moved toward Trump in 2024ChartsTrump swept all seven swing states. Only Arizona topped 5 points.ChartsRed and blue states ranked: only 8 of 51 were within 5 pointsCharts42 states never flipped. Just 9 decided four elections.ChartsYoung Americans are 15× likelier than seniors to get political news mainly from social mediaChartsJust 8% of Republicans trust the news media. Among Democrats it is 51%.ChartsFacebook still beats TikTok 2 to 1 as a news sourceAnswersDid Democrats win the House in 2026?AnswersWho will control the Senate in 2027?AnswersWhich states flipped in the 2026 midterms?AnswersWhen was Texas last blue?AnswersWhat are the 7 swing states?AnswersDoes the president’s party always lose seats in midterms?AnswersHow many electoral votes does it take to win?AnswersHow many electoral votes does each state have?AnswersWhen is the next presidential election?AnswersWhich Senate seats are up in 2028?AnswersWhat is the difference between called and certified results?AnswersWho won the 2024 popular vote?AnswersWhen does the new Congress start?AnswersHow can you tell if a state is red or blue?The White HouseThe road to the White House in 2028Border & immigrationImmigration and the 2028 electionEconomy & inflationReading the economy during an electionVoters & turnoutYoung voters: registration and turnoutAI & jobsAI, jobs and technology policyElection administrationUnderstanding U.S. election results
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Presidential election2028The race for the White House

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AI illustration of the U.S. Capitol.

2026 midterm results

Power shift: Democrats take the House and flip 7 Senate seats

Senate
54–44
House
242–151
Governors
28–20

The 2028 race in real numbers

What markets are pricing for 2028

DemocratsRepublicans
67.5%31.5%
  1. Jon Ossoff21%Kalshi 23%
  2. JD Vance19%
  3. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%Kalshi 10%
  4. Marco Rubio9%Kalshi 11%
  5. Gavin Newsom7%Kalshi 8%
  6. Ron DeSantis5%Kalshi 6%

Polymarket prices, with Kalshi where available. These are trader prices, not a forecast and not a betting tip. We do not link to either market.

Head-to-head polls

Gavin NewsomJD Vance
43.6%40.2%
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezJD Vance
42.1%41.6%
Pete ButtigiegJD Vance
41.1%38.3%

ElectionsUSA polling average, as of Nov 5, 2026.

Who Americans are looking up

  1. Jon Ossoff1,231,483
  2. Gavin Newsom510,462
  3. JD Vance458,071
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez324,495
  5. Marco Rubio268,769
  6. Donald Trump Jr.265,044

English Wikipedia page views in the past 30 days. Attention, not approval.

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43.6%

Gavin Newsom

40.2%

JD Vance

ElectionsUSA ↗ · Hypothetical matchup · 7 weighted polls · Nov 5, 2026

Alabama: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Alaska: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Arizona: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Colorado: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Florida: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Georgia: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Indiana: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Kansas: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Maine: Harris, statewide winner in 2024 · Maine: 3 Harris / 1 Trump. Nebraska: 1 Harris / 4 Trump. Statewide winners determine shading.Massachusetts: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Minnesota: Harris, statewide winner in 2024New Jersey: Harris, statewide winner in 2024North Carolina: Trump, statewide winner in 2024North Dakota: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Oklahoma: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Pennsylvania: Trump, statewide winner in 2024South Dakota: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Texas: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Wyoming: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Connecticut: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Missouri: Trump, statewide winner in 2024West Virginia: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Illinois: Harris, statewide winner in 2024New Mexico: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Arkansas: Trump, statewide winner in 2024California: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Delaware: Harris, statewide winner in 2024District of Columbia: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Hawaii: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Iowa: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Kentucky: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Maryland: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Michigan: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Mississippi: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Montana: Trump, statewide winner in 2024New Hampshire: Harris, statewide winner in 2024New York: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Ohio: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Oregon: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Tennessee: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Utah: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Virginia: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Washington: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Wisconsin: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Nebraska: Trump, statewide winner in 2024 · Maine: 3 Harris / 1 Trump. Nebraska: 1 Harris / 4 Trump. Statewide winners determine shading.South Carolina: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Idaho: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Nevada: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Vermont: Harris, statewide winner in 2024Louisiana: Trump, statewide winner in 2024Rhode Island: Harris, statewide winner in 2024
D226
R312
Total538

270 to win

National Archives ↗ · Historical result, not a 2028 forecast

National Archives ↗ · 2024 & 2028 allocation

ElectionsUSA · Nov 5, 2026

The charts both parties will argue about

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