The numbers
229,766 votes in three states decided the 2024 election
That is 0.15% of 155,240,955 votes. Flip Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and Harris reaches exactly 270 electoral votes.
- Pennsylvania120,266
- Michigan80,103
- Wisconsin29,397
Why it matters
Because each state awards its electors together, about 114,885 people changing sides in the right places would have moved 44 electoral votes. Trump also won the national popular vote, so this shows the system’s leverage, not an illegitimate result.
How we counted
Trump’s certified lead in each of the three closest tipping states, summed. Switched voters are half of each margin plus one. Harris’s 226 electors plus these three states total 270.